It seems that times of anxiety and change bring out a fair share of clairvoyance in some folks. These like to declare with some confidence the future state of affairs, stating what will work and what will not. I confess I’ve not developed enough discernment to know how to sort through those predictions. I suppose one way to think about it is that any prediction about the future has about a 50% chance of being right (or, wrong, depending on how you want to look at it).
In the current tumultuous and uncertain world of theological education I’m hearing plenty of predictions about its future. Most of it is not hopeful. Here are a few often repeated:
“The M.Div. degree as we know it is dead.”
“No one is hiring Christian educators any more.”
“Most free standing seminaries will not survive the next decade.”
“Online education is not feasible for seminary education.”
“Most students in seminary are not going into congregational ministry.”
“Brick and mortar theological libraries are going the way of the Dodo. They are obsolete and soon will be extinct.”
“Donors no longer give to the cause of advanced theological education.”
For those who make their living and work out their calling in theological education, those are scary predictions. How much truth is in any of those statements remains to be seen. It may be helpful to remember that prognosticators have a mixed record of success when it comes to predicting how things will turn out:
“That rainbow song’s no good. Take it out.” – MGM memo after first showing of The Wizard Of Oz.
“You’d better learn secretarial skills or else get married.” Modeling agency, rejecting Marilyn Monroe in 1944.
“Radio has no future.” “X-rays are clearly a hoax”. “The aeroplane is scientifically impossible.” – Royal Society president Lord Kelvin, 1897-9.
“You ought to go back to driving a truck.” Concert manager, firing Elvis Presley in 1954.
“Forget it. No Civil War picture ever made a nickel.” MGM executive, advising against investing in Gone With The Wind.
“Can’t act. Can’t sing. Slightly bald. Can dance a little.” A film company’s verdict on Fred Astaire’s 1928 screen test.
“Very interesting, Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.” Professor of Aeronautical Engineering at Cambridge, shown Frank Whittle’s plan for the jet engine.
“The atom bomb will never go off – and I speak as an expert in explosives.” U.S. Admiral William Leahy in 1945.
“All saved from Titanic after collision.” New York Evening Sun, April 15 1912.
“Brain work will cause women to go bald.” Berlin professor, 1914.
“Television won’t matter in your lifetime or mine.” Radio Times editor Rex Lambert, 1936.
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Director of the US Patent Office, 1899.
“And for the tourist who really wants to get away from it all, safaris in Vietnam.” Newsweek magazine, predicting popular holidays for the late 1960s.
